Establishment of predictive index model for postoperative survival in patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma
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R735.7

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    Abstract:

    Objective: To establish a predictive index (PI) model for estimation of postoperative survival in patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: The clinical data of 102 patients with hepatitis B-related HCC undergoing hepatectomy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University during October 2007 to October 2009 were collected. The variables affecting the postoperative 5-year survival of the patients were determined by using COX proportional hazard regression method, then, based on the results from above analyses, the PI model was established and finally the accuracy of the established PI model was verified. Results: Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), microvascular invasion (MVI), the maximum size of tumor (MST), the amount of tumor (AT), postoperative transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment were independent variables affecting the prognosis in these patients (all P<0.05). The PI model was established according to the above variables and was expressed as PI=0.317×NLR+0.958×MVI (Yes=1, No=0) +0.700×MST (<5 cm=0, ≥5 cm=1) +0.945×AT (multiple=1, single=0) –1.168×TACE (Yes=1, No=0). The verification results demonstrated that and the AUC of this model for predicting the 5-year survival of the patients reached 0.795, with the cut-off value of 1.46 and accuracy of 75.49%, respectively. Conclusion: The PI model for predicting the postoperative 5-year survival of patients with hepatitis B-related HCC is established successfully,which may be of help to estimate the prognosis and choose a proper treatment plan for these patients in clinical practice.

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HE Shasha, FAN Xiaotang, ZHU Da, HE Fangping. Establishment of predictive index model for postoperative survival in patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma[J]. Chin J Gen Surg,2015,24(7):952-957.
DOI:10.3978/j. issn.1005-6947.2015.07.007

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History
  • Received:April 19,2015
  • Revised:June 08,2015
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 15,2015
  • Published: