Cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab in treatment of chemotherapy-refractory advanced gastric cancer based on Markov model
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R735.2

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    Abstract:

    Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab that has recently been approved for sale in China in treatment of chemotherapy-refractory advanced gastric cancer.  
    Methods: Using the data obtained from the ATTRACTION-2 trial (330 cases for nivolumab group, and 
    163 cases for placebo group), Markov model was created for simulation of the disease development process of chemotherapy-refractory advanced gastric cancer. The costs, life-years (LY) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) in each group were analysed, then the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, and subgroup analysis was also performed based on the expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1). The variables were further valued by sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability of the model. 
    Results: Among PD-L1 positive patients, the overall health output gained in nivolumab group was 0.357 QALY (0.526 LY) at a cost of 221 171 yuan, and in placebo group was 0.251 QALY (0.368 LY) at a cost of 40 866 yuan; the ICER for the nivolumab group compared with placebo group was 1 700 991 yuan/QALY. Among PD-L1 negative patients, the overall health output gained in nivolumab group was 0.545 QALY (0.845 LY) at a cost of 
    333 195 yuan, and in placebo group was 0.403 QALY (0.63 LY) at a cost of 90 285 yuan; the ICER for the nivolumab group compared with placebo group was 1 710 634 yuan/QALY. The ICER values of nivolumab treatment were greater than that of willingness-to-pay (178 980 yuan) in both subgroups. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the possibility of cost-effectiveness of nivolumab was 0. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter was the price of nivolumab. 
    Conclusion: Nivolumab does not achieve cost-effectiveness compared to placebo for chemotherapy-refractory advanced gastric cancer at current health care environment in China. However, nivolumab can provide a survival benefit to the patients, and its economical effectiveness can be improved by means such as implementing charity care program and medical insurance coverage. 

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HAN Jiaqi, SHE Longjiang, YAO Linli, HUANG Jin. Cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab in treatment of chemotherapy-refractory advanced gastric cancer based on Markov model[J]. Chin J Gen Surg,2019,28(3):327-334.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.2019.03.012

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History
  • Received:November 15,2018
  • Revised:February 14,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 25,2019
  • Published: