Abstract:Objective：To establish a prediction model of distant metastasis in early breast cancer by using conventional clinical and pathologic factors so that patients with early breast cancer might be classified as high and low risk groups and individualized therapy could be guided by it.
Methods ： Risk factors related to the status of metastasis in early breast cancer were screened using multifactorial logistic regression. On this basis, the model for predicting distant metastasis in early breast cancer was established and its effects were observed.
Results：Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that the number of metastasic axillary lymph nodes, diameter of primary tumor, and level of C-erb-B2 were chosen from 12 risk factors as the modeling factors. Depending on these factors, we established the prediction model. Its accuracy rate for retrospective prediction and for prospective prediction were 79.3％ and 69.2％, respectively.
Conclusions：The risk of distant metastasis in early breast cancer can be predicted from the predicting model and these patients could be divided into two subgroups—high risk group and low risk group. This model might provide certain evidence for individualized therapy in postoperative breast cancer patients.