BISAP、APACHE II 和Ranson 评分在预测急性胰腺炎严重程度的比较
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赵涛, Email: ahslyyzt@sina.com

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Comparison among BISAP, APACHE II and Ranson’s scoring system in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis
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    目的:比较BISAP、APACHE II、Ranson评分系统对发病早期急性胰腺炎(AP)患者的严重程度及预后的评估价值。 方法:回顾性分析2009年1月1日—2014年3月收治的AP患者(病程≤48 h)临床资料,根据患者入院时第1次BISAP、APACHE II、Ranson评分,比较各评分系统预测AP患者器官功能衰竭、胰腺坏死、死亡的受试工作者特征曲线(ROC)的曲线下面积(AUC),及其灵敏度和特异度。 结果:按纳入与剔除标准,最终共纳入135例患者,其中24例(17.7%)诊断重症胰腺炎(SAP)(19例器官衰竭诊断,5例死亡);20例(14.8%)在入院期间诊断胰腺坏死。BISAP、APACHE II和Ranson评分诊断器官功能衰竭的AUC分别为0.773、0.821、0.897(P<0.001),敏感度与特异度分别为0.880与0.530、0.872与0.642、0.740与0.982;预测胰腺坏死程度的AUC分别为0.819、0.785、0.825(P>0.05),敏感度与特异度分别为0.715与0.885、0.844与0.630、0.833与0.672;预测死亡的AUC分别为0.773、0.786、0.889(P>0.05),敏感度与特异度分别为0.740与0.830、0.843与0.752、0.865与0.886。 结论:3种评分系统在预测AP患者胰腺坏死程度与死亡方面价值相似,BISAP在预测AP器官功能衰竭方面不如Ranson与APACHE II,但其评分简单,能够快速评估和动态监测,有利于临床使用。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To compare the values of BISAP, APACHE II, and Ranson’s scoring system for estimating the severity and prognosis of patients with early stage acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: The clinical records of AP patients admitted between January 2009 and March 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the first scores yielded by BISAP, APACHE II and Ranson’s score system at the time after admission, comparison was made of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of each scoring system for estimating the organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and death in AP patients as well as their sensitivity and specificity. Results: One hundred and thirty-five patients were finally enrolled according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of the patients, 24 cases (17.7%) were diagnosed as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which included 19 cases diagnosed with organ failure, of which death occurred in 5 cases, and 20 cases were diagnosed having pancreatic necrosis. Of the BISAP, APACHE II, and Ranson’s scoring system, the AUC for organ failure estimation was 0.773, 0.821 and 0.897 (P<0.001), with sensitivity of 0.880, 0.872 and 0.740, and specificity of 0.530, 0.642 and 0.982, respectively; the AUC for pancreatic necrosis estimation was 0.819, 0.785 and 0.825 (P>0.05), with sensitivity of 0.715, 0.844 and 0.833, and specificity of 0.885, 0.630 and 0.672, respectively; the AUC for death estimation was 0.773, 0.786 and 0.889 (P>0.05), with sensitivity of 0.740, 0.843 and 0.865, and specificity of 0.830, 0.752 and 0.886, respectively. Conclusion: For AP patients, the three scoring systems have similar value in predicting pancreatic necrosis and death, and BISAP score is inferior to Ranson’s and APACHE II score in predicting organ failure, but it has the advantages of simple scoring, rapid assessment and dynamic monitoring, and is convenient to use in clinical practice.

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张嘉,赵涛,曹荣格,陈东,卢华东,高传书. BISAP、APACHE II 和Ranson 评分在预测急性胰腺炎严重程度的比较[J].中国普通外科杂志,2014,23(9):1176-1181.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.2014.09.004

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  • 收稿日期:2014-07-05
  • 最后修改日期:2014-08-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-09-15