皮革胃患者术后生存情况预测的列线图模型研究
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戴赟,福建医科大学附属协和医院硕士研究生,主要从事胃肿瘤的临床诊治方面的研究。

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国家临床重点学科建设基金资助项目([2012]649);福建省科技创新联合资金资助项目(2016Y9031);福建省微创医学中心资助项目( [2017]171);福建医科大学启航基金项目资助(2016QH024)。 


Establishment of nomogram model for predicting postoperative survival of patients with gastric linitis plastica
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    摘要:

    目的: 构建皮革胃患者术后预后的列线图预测模型,并验证其准确性。
    方法: 收集2008年12月—2014年9月共203例在福建医科大学附属协和医院胃外科行R0切除的皮革胃患者的临床病理资料。根据Cox逻辑回归分析确定的独立预后因素,用R软件建立列线图预测模型,并分析所建模型对皮革胃患者预后预测的准确度。
    结果: 全组患者中,男152例,女51例,其平均年龄为60.3(21~89)岁;II期患者25例(12.3%),III期患者178例(87.7%);中位随访时间38(2~111)个月;3、5年总体生存率分别为31.2%、18.7%。多因素分析结果示,BMI(P=0.006)、肿瘤细胞分化程度(P=0.042)、T分期(P=0.032)、N分期(P=0.032)、ASA评分(P=0.016)是预后的独立危险因素。根据以上独立危险因素建立列线图,并根据列线图的得分将患者进行危险分组分析发现,高危组(>16分)、中危组(>8~16分)和低危组(≤8分)患者的生存差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。列线图的线性χ2、阳性似然比、赤池信息量值准则均优于第七版AJCC-TNM分期系统(68.99 vs. 58.58、70.18 vs. 58.36、1 473.38 vs. 1 485.04)。
    结论: 所建立的列线图模型能有效预测皮革胃患者的术后总体生存率,其预测准确度优于第7版AJCC-TNM分期系统,但该结果仍需进一步通过大宗的病例和多中心研究验证。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To construct a nomogram-based model for predicting the postoperative survival of patients with linitis plastica of the stomach, and verify its accuracy. 
    Methods: The clinical and pathological data of 203 patients with gastric linitis plastica who underwent R0 resection in the Department of Gastric Surgery of Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from December 2008 to September 2014 were collected. The independent prognostic factors were determined by Cox regression analysis, and then the nomogram predictive model was constructed by using R software. Further, the accuracy of the model in predicting the prognosis of patients with gastric linitis plastica was analyzed.
    Results: In the whole group of patients, 152 cases were males and 51 cases were females, with an average age of 60.3 (21–89) years; 25 cases (12.3%) had stage II disease and 178 cases (87.7%) had stage III disease; the median follow-up time was 38 (2–111) months; the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 31.2% and 18.7% respectively. Results of multivariate analysis showed that BMI (P=0.006), tumor differentiation (P=0.042), T stage (P=0.032), N stage (P=0.032) and ASA score (P=0.016) were independent prognostic factors. Based on these independent risk factors, a nomogram model was established. The risk stratification analysis of the patients according to their scores from the nomogram showed that there was a significant statistical difference among high-risk group (>16), intermediate-risk group (>8–16) and low-risk group (≤8) (P<0.001). The values of χ2 for linear trend, likelihood ratio, and Akaike information criterion of the nomogram were all superior to those of the 7th edition AJCC staging system (68.99 vs. 58.58, 70.18 vs. 58.36, 1 473.38 vs. 1 485.04).
    Conclusion: The established nomogram can effectively predict the postoperative survival of the patients with gastric linitis plastica, and its accuracy is better than that of the 7th edition AJCC staging system. However, but the results still need to be further verified by large sample size and multicenter studies.

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戴赟, 陆俊, 李平, 郑朝晖, 黄昌明.皮革胃患者术后生存情况预测的列线图模型研究[J].中国普通外科杂志,2019,28(4):461-466.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.2019.04.012

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  • 收稿日期:2018-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:2018-10-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-04-25