肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症列线图风险预测模型的建立与评价
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莫新少, Email: moxinshao@163.com

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Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram risk prediction model for severe complications in patients after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma
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    摘要:

    背景与目的:肝切除术后并发症的发生率较高,早期筛查术后严重并发症发生的高风险人群对于降低术后严重并发症的发生率具有重要意义。本研究通过分析肝细胞癌患者术后严重并发症发生的危险因素,建立术后严重并发症发生的个体化列线图风险预测模型,以期为肝细胞癌患者围术期管理的优化提供参考依据。
    方法:回顾性分析广西医科大学第一附属医院肝胆外科2018年1月—2020年6月行肝切除术的854例肝细胞癌患者资料,采用单因素分析与Logistic回归分析筛选术后严重并发症的影响因素,并建立列线图风险预测模型,采用Bootstrap法对模型进行内部验证,并应用ROC曲线及校准曲线评价模型的区分度及校准度。
    结果:854例患者中86例(10.1%)发生术后严重并发症(≥III级)。单因素分析与Logistic回归分析结果显示,肝硬化(OR=1.905,95% CI=1.153~3.147,P=0.012)、手术方式(OR=3.412,95% CI=1.618~7.192,P=0.001)、术中血浆输注(OR=2.518,95% CI=1.51~4.199,P<0.001)、手术时间(OR=1.003,95% CI=1.002~1.005,P<0.001)、术后白蛋白水平(OR=0.922,95% CI=0.873~0.973,P=0.003)、术后天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶水平(OR=1.001,95% CI=1.000~1.002,P=0.006)是肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症的独立影响因素。列线图模型预测术后严重并发症发生风险的C-指数为0.774,ROC曲线显示列线图模型预测术后严重并发症发生风险的曲线下面积为0.788(95% CI= 0.74~0.836)。
    结论:基于6个临床因素建立的肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症的个体化列线图风险预测模型预测效能良好,可用于早期识别高风险患者,为医务人员采取防治措施提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims: The incidence of complications after hepatectomy is relatively high, and early screening of high-risk population for severe complications after hepatectomy is of great significance to reduce the incidence of severe complications after surgery. This study was conducted to analyze the risk factors for severe postoperative complications in patients undergoing surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and establish an individualized nomogram risk prediction model for severe postoperative complications, so as to provide a reference for the optimization of the perioperative management of HCC patients.  
    Methods: The data of HCC 854 patients who underwent hepatectomy from January 2018 to June 2020 in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors for severe postoperative complications were screened by univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis, and then a nomogram risk prediction model was established. The internal validation of the model was assessed using the Bootstrap method, and the discrimination and calibration aspects of the model were assessed by ROC curves and calibration plots. 
    Results: Among the 854 patients, serious postoperative complications (≥ grade III) occurred in 86 cases (10.1%). The results of univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis (OR=1.905, 95% CI=1.153–3.147, P=0.012), surgical procedure (OR=3.412, 95% CI=1.618–7.192, P=0.001), intraoperative plasma transfusion (OR=2.518, 95% CI=1.51–4.199, P<0.001), operative time (OR=1.003, 95% CI=1.002–1.005, P<0.001), postoperative albumin level (OR=0.922, 95% CI=0.873–0.973, P=0.003) and postoperative aspartate transaminase level (OR=1.001, 95% CI=1.000–1.002, P=0.006) were independent influencing factors for severe complications in HCC patients after hepatectomy. The C-index of the nomogram model to predict the risk of severe postoperative complications was 0.774, and the area under the ROC curve for the nomogram model was 0.788 (95% CI=0.74–0.836). 
    Conclusion: The established individualized nomogram risk prediction model for severe complications after hepatectomy based on 6 clinical factors has good predictive performance. This model can be used for early identification of high-risk patients and provide a basis for medical staff to take preventive measures.

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邱洁净, 莫新少, 滕艳娟, 陈似霞, 唐雯桢.肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症列线图风险预测模型的建立与评价[J].中国普通外科杂志,2021,30(1):24-31.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.2021.01.004

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-16
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-25