结直肠癌同时性肝肺转移的预后因素分析及预后预测模型构建
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安徽省芜湖市第二人民医院(华东师范大学附属芜湖医院) 胃肠一科,安徽 芜湖 241001

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朱江鹏,安徽省芜湖市第二人民医院(华东师范大学附属芜湖医院)住院医师,主要从事胃肠道消化肿瘤方面的研究。

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Prognostic factors and construction of prognostic prediction model for simultaneously diagnosed liver and lung metastases from colorectal cancer
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[Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Second People's Hospital, Wuhu (Wuhu Hospital, East China Normal University), Wuhu, Anhui 241001, China]

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 结直肠癌(CRC)可发生远处器官转移,导致预后不良,其中以肝脏和肺转移最为常见。然而,相较于CRC单纯肺转移或肝转移,同时性肝肺转移(SLLMCRC)的报道甚少。因此,本研究探讨SLLMCRC患者的预后相关因素并构建预后预测模型,为诊疗方案的选择及疗效评估提供参考。方法 在SEER数据库中提取2010—2019年诊断为SLLMCRC患者的病理资料,通过纳入和排除标准,最终筛选出800例符合要求的患者。根据7∶3比例随机分成建模集(560例)和验证集(240例),利用Cox比例风险回归模型筛选出SLLMCRC患者总体生存(OS)的独立危险因素,利用Fine-Gray竞争风险模型筛选出SLLMCRC患者肿瘤特异性生存(CSS)的独立危险因素。根据独立危险因素,以此来构建预测SLLMCRC患者OS和CSS的列线图模型。分别采用一致性指数、受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校正曲线对构建模型进行可靠性验证。结果 建模集与验证集患者基线因素差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。年龄(50~69岁,HR=1.39,95% CI=1.07~1.81;≥70岁,HR=1.94,95% CI=1.46~2.58)、原发灶手术(HR=0.67,95% CI=0.48~0.95)、CEA水平(HR=1.39,95% CI=1.04~1.87)、化疗(HR=0.22,95% CI=0.18~0.28)是SLLMCRC患者OS的独立影响因素(均P<0.05);SLLMCRC患者年龄越大的OS率越差,而行原发灶手术、CEA阴性、接受化疗则有更高的OS率。年龄(50~69岁,HR=1.05,95% CI=1.01~1.12;HR=1.17,95% CI=1.02~1.35)、区域淋巴结清扫数目(HR=0.67,95% CI=0.48~0.90)、化疗(HR=0.45,95% CI=0.34~0.61)是SLLMCRC患者CSS的独立影响因素(均P<0.05);SLLMCRC患者的年龄越大CSS率越低,而区域淋巴结清扫数目多、接受化疗则有更高的CSS率。对基于以上因素构建的列线图预测模型的验证结果显示,建模集1、2、3年OS的ROC值分别为0.643、0.587和0.591;验证集分别为0.631、0.623和0.628。建模集1、2、3年CSS的ROC值分别为0.607、0.610和0.681;验证集分别为0.624、0.618和0.624。OS和CSS的校准曲线相对接近理想45°参考线。结论 年龄、原发灶手术、CEA水平、区域淋巴结清扫数目、化疗情况是SLLMCRC患者的预后密切相关,放疗可能无法让SLLMCRC患者获益。构建的预测模型具有较高的准确性和可靠性,为临床医生关于诊疗方案的选择及评估疗效提供了证据支持。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims Colorectal cancer (CRC) can metastasize to distant organs, leading to poor prognosis, with liver and lung metastases being the most common. However, simultaneous diagnosed liver and lung metastases from colorectal cancer (SLLMCRC) are rarely reported compared to isolated lung or liver metastases. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore the prognostic factors for patients with SLLMCRC and to develop a prognostic prediction model to provide reference for the selection of treatment plans and evaluation of therapeutic efficacy.Methods Data of patients diagnosed with SLLMCRC from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the SEER database. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 800 eligible patients were selected. These were randomly divided into a modeling cohort (560 cases) and a validation cohort (240 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) of SLLMCRC patients, while the Fine-Gray competitive risk model was employed to identify independent risk factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS). Prognostic nomograms for predicting OS and CSS were constructed based on these independent risk factors. The reliability of the models was validated using the consistency index, ROC curve, and calibration curve.Results There were no statistically significant differences in baseline factors between the modeling and validation cohorts (all P>0.05). Age (50-69 years: HR=1.39, 95% CI=1.07-1.81; ≥70 years: HR=1.94, 95% CI=1.46-2.58), primary tumor resection (HR=0.67, 95% CI=0.48-0.95), CEA level (HR=1.39, 95% CI=1.04-1.87), and chemotherapy (HR=0.22, 95% CI=0.18-0.28) were independent factors affecting SLLMCRC patients OS (all P<0.05). The older age of SLLMCRC patients, the lower the OS rate, while having primary tumor resection, negative CEA result, and receiving chemotherapy result in higher OS rate. Age between 50-69 years (HR=1.05, 95% CI=1.01-1.12), number of regional lymph nodes removed (HR=0.67, 95% CI=0.48-0.90), and chemotherapy (HR=0.45, 95% CI=0.34-0.61) were independent factors affecting CSS (all P<0.05). Older age correlated with lower CSS rate, while more extensive regional lymph node removal and receiving chemotherapy correlated with higher CSS rate. The nomogram validation showed that the 1, 2, and 3-year OS ROC values for the modeling cohort were 0.643, 0.587, and 0.591, respectively; for the validation cohort, these values were 0.631, 0.623, and 0.628. The 1, 2, and 3-year CSS ROC values for the modeling cohort were 0.607, 0.610, and 0.681, respectively; for the validation cohort, these values were 0.624, 0.618, and 0.624. The calibration curves for OS and CSS were relatively close to the ideal 45° reference line.Conclusion Age, primary tumor resection, CEA level, number of regional lymph nodes removed, and chemotherapy are closely related to the prognosis of patients with SLLMCRC. Radiotherapy may not benefit SLLMCRC patients. The constructed prediction model has high accuracy and reliability, providing evidence to support clinical decision-making and evaluation of treatment efficacy for clinicians.

    表 3 影响SLLMCRC患者OS的单因素和多因素分析(续)Table 3 Univariate and multivariate analysis of factors for OS in patients with SLLMCRC (continued)
    表 1 建模集和验证集的患者基本特征[n(%)]Table 1 The basic characteristics of SLLMCRC patients in modeling set and validation set [n(%)]
    表 2 影响SLLMCRC患者OS的单因素和多因素分析Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis of factors for OS in patients with SLLMCRC
    表 4 影响SLLMCRC患者CSS的多因素分析Table 4 Multivariate analysis of factors for CSS in patients with SLLMCRC
    图1 病例筛选流程图Fig.1 The flowchart of case inclusion
    图2 主要变量对SLLMCRC患者OS的影响生存曲线分析Fig.2 Survival curve analysis of influences of the main variables on the OS in SLLMCRC patients
    图3 主要变量对SLLMCRC患者CSS的累积发病率曲线分析(a:死亡为该肿瘤导致;b:死亡为其他原因导致)Fig.3 Cumulative incidence rate curve analysis of influences of the main variables on the CSS of SLLMCRC patients (a: death caused by the tumor; b: death caused by other reasons)
    图4 SLLMCRC患者预后列线图预测模型 A:OS;B:CSSFig.4 Nomogram prediction model for prognosis of SLLMCRC patients A: OS; B: CSS
    图5 评价预测模型可靠性的ROC曲线 A:OS;B:CSSFig.5 ROC curves for evaluating the reliability of the prediction models A: OS; B: CSS
    图6 建模集和验证集中SLLMCRC患者列线图预测模型1、2、3年OS和CSS的校正曲线(图中横坐标表示列线图模型预测生存率,纵坐标表示Kaplan-Meier法计算的实际生存率,对角线表示两者匹配完全一致性) A:OS;B:CSSFig.6 The calibration curves of nomogram prediction model of 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS in SLLMCRC patients in modeling set and validation set (the horizontal axis showing the predicted survival rates by the nomogram prediction model, and the vertical axis showing the actual survival rates obtained by Kaplan-Meier method) A: OS; B: CSS
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朱江鹏,李光耀,姚远,朱伟伟,黄伟.结直肠癌同时性肝肺转移的预后因素分析及预后预测模型构建[J].中国普通外科杂志,2024,33(7):1111-1121.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.2024.07.010

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-28
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-08-10