1990—2021年全球女性肝癌疾病负担演变、驱动因素及未来发病趋势预测
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1中南大学湘雅三医院 骨科,湖南 长沙 410013;2中南大学湘雅三医院 手术室,湖南 长沙 410013;3中南大学湘雅三医院 肝胆胰外科,湖南 长沙 410013;4中南大学湘雅二医院 肝胆外科,湖南 长沙410011;5湖南省湘潭市第二人民医院 消化内科,湖南 湘潭 411100;6湖南省湘西自治州人民医院 护理部,湖南 吉首 416000;7湖南省湘西自治州人民医院 麻醉科, 湖南 吉首 416000

作者简介:

张文秀,中南大学湘雅三医院主管护师,主要从事临床护理方面的研究。

基金项目:

湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2026JJ30210,2026JJ50288)。


Evolution, driving factors, and future incidence trends of the global burden of female liver cancer, 1990-2021
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1Department of Orthopedics, the Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China;2Operating Room, the Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China;3Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China;4Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410011, China;5Department of Gastroenterology, the Second People's Hospital of Xiangtan, Xiangtan, Hunan 411100, China;6Department of Nursing, Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture People's Hospital, Jishou, Hunan 416000, China;7Department of Anesthesiology, Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture People's Hospital, Jishou, Hunan 416000, China

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 女性肝癌的疾病负担及其驱动因素随全球人口结构和病因谱变化不断演变,但其长期流行趋势、健康不平等及未来发病趋势尚缺乏系统评估。本研究基于全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库,分析1990—2021年全球女性肝癌疾病负担的变化特征、驱动因素及社会经济不平等,并预测2050年前发病趋势,为制定针对性的防控策略提供循证依据。方法 提取GBD 2021数据库中204个国家和地区1990—2021年女性肝癌发病及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)数据,采用年龄标准化发病率(ASR)评估疾病负担变化趋势;应用分解分析量化人口增长、人口老龄化及流行病学变化对新发病例变化的贡献;采用斜率不平等指数(SII)和集中指数(CIX)评估DALY负担的社会经济不平等;构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2021—2050年全球女性肝癌发病趋势。结果 1990—2021年,全球女性肝癌ASR由3.80/10万下降至3.36/10万,而新发病例数由83 362例增至153 802例。分解分析显示,人口增长(61.48%)和流行病学变化(54.46%)是推动病例增加的主要因素,人口老龄化则呈负向贡献(-15.94%),不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区驱动模式存在明显异质性。年龄分布分析显示,女性肝癌ASR于45~54岁后明显升高,新发病例数于70~74岁达到峰值。1990—2021年,SII由112.11降至88.19,CIX由0.140降至0.037,提示女性肝癌DALY负担的绝对与相对社会经济不平等均有所改善,但仍存在轻度“亲富不平等”特征。BAPC模型预测,至2050年,全球女性肝癌ASR及标准年龄结构下预期新发病例数均将继续下降。结论 过去30年,全球女性肝癌ASR总体呈下降趋势,但人口增长抵消了风险下降带来的获益,使疾病绝对负担持续增加。不同社会经济发展水平地区疾病负担驱动因素存在明显差异,全球健康不平等虽有所改善,但高SDI地区代谢相关危险因素导致的疾病负担仍值得关注。未来应根据不同地区疾病负担特点实施差异化防控策略,并重点加强中老年女性高危人群的早期筛查和干预。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims The disease burden of liver cancer in women has evolved substantially with demographic transitions and changes in etiological patterns worldwide. However, comprehensive evidence regarding its long-term epidemiological trends, driving factors, socioeconomic inequalities, and future incidence remains limited. This study aimed to characterize the global burden of female liver cancer from 1990 to 2021, quantify its major drivers and health inequalities, and project future incidence trends based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database.Methods Data on incident cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of female liver cancer from 204 countries and territories were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Temporal trends were assessed using the age-standardized rate (ASR). Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contributions of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes to variations in incident cases. Socioeconomic inequalities in DALY burden were evaluated using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was constructed to project global incidence trends from 2021 to 2050.Results Between 1990 and 2021, the global ASR of female liver cancer declined from 3.80 to 3.36 per 100 000, whereas the number of incident cases increased from 83 362 to 153 802. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth (61.48%) and epidemiological changes (54.46%) were the major contributors to the increase in incident cases, while population aging exerted a negative contribution (-15.94%), with substantial heterogeneity across socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. Age-specific analyses demonstrated that ASR increased markedly after 45-54 years of age, whereas the highest number of incident cases occurred among women aged 70-74 years. During the study period, the SII decreased from 112.11 to 88.19, and the concentration index declined from 0.140 to 0.037, indicating improvements in both absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities, although a slight pro-rich inequality persisted. The BAPC model projected continued declines in both the global ASR and the expected number of incident cases under a standardized age structure by 2050.Conclusion Although the ASR of female liver cancer has declined globally over the past three decades, population growth has offset these gains, resulting in a sustained increase in the absolute disease burden. The drivers of disease burden differ substantially across socioeconomic settings, and despite improvements in health inequalities, the burden associated with metabolic risk factors in high-SDI regions remains a major concern. Region-specific prevention strategies and enhanced early screening for middle-aged and older women at high risk are warranted to further reduce the global burden of female liver cancer.

    图1 2021年全球女性肝癌ASR最高与最低的10个国家/地区分布Fig.1 Distribution of the 10 countries/territories with the highest and lowest ASR of female liver cancer worldwide in 2021
    图2 2021年全球女性肝癌的年龄特异发病率及新发病例绝对数Fig.2 Age-specific incidence rates and incident cases of female liver cancer worldwide in 2021
    图3 1990—2021年全球及各地区女性肝癌新发病例绝对数变化的分解分析 A:全球及SDI分层层面;B:GBD区域层面Fig.3 Decomposition analysis of changes in the absolute number of incident cases of female liver cancer globally and across GBD regions, 1990-2021 A: Global and SDI level analysis; B: GBD regional level analysis
    图4 1990年和2021年女性肝癌DALY负担的社会经济不平等 A:SII;B:CIXFig.4 Socioeconomic inequalities in the DALY burden of female liver cancer in 1990 and 2021 A: SII; B: CIX
    图5 BAPC模型预测2021—2050年全球女性肝癌的ASR及标准年龄结构下的预期新发病例数Fig.5 BAPC projections of the age-standardized incidence rate and expected incident cases under a standardized age structure for female liver cancer worldwide, 2021—2050
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张文秀,刘雍容,孙吉春,金晓馨,刘敏,张欣,陈华,秦琴,金艳.1990—2021年全球女性肝癌疾病负担演变、驱动因素及未来发病趋势预测[J].中国普通外科杂志,2026,35(7):1326-1335.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.260266

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-31
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